Uptick in activity in recent weeks may be the start of a turnaround, leaving real estate market experts cautiously optimistic

First quarter highlights:

• In the first quarter of 2026, the national aggregate home price decreased 2.0% year over year; ticked up a modest 0.7% over Q4 2025.
• The Greater Montreal Area's aggregate home price increased 3.3% year over year, while the greater Toronto and Vancouver markets recorded declines of 4.7% and 4.5%, respectively, in the first quarter.
• Quebec City recorded the highest year-over-year aggregate price increase (10.7%) among Canada's major regions for the eighth consecutive quarter.

TORONTO, April 16, 2026 /CNW/ - Canada's spring housing market got off to a slow start, with momentum tempered by economic and geopolitical uncertainty, and the lingering effects of a long and snowy winter. However, activity began to pick up in recent weeks.

According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Forecast released today, the aggregate¹ price of a home in Canada decreased 2.0 per cent year over year to $812,900 in the first quarter of 2026. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, however, the national aggregate home price remained relatively flat, increasing just 0.7 per cent.

"In a typical spring, Canada's housing market would already be gaining momentum, but persistently low consumer confidence remains a drag on activity – especially in our most expensive markets," said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. "That hesitation is being driven by uncertainty beyond our borders. The inflationary impact of America's war with Iran is pushing energy prices higher, with ripple effects across the broader economy, while ongoing trade negotiations ahead of the CUSMA review are adding to concerns about economic stability and job security. For many Canadians, the headlines are hard to ignore."

That sentiment can be seen in a Bank of Canada survey conducted in the fourth quarter of 2025, where Canadians were asked when they believe Canada–U.S. trade tensions had – or will have – the greatest impact on the economy and inflation. Half of respondents (50%) indicated that the most significant effects are still to come, while 27 per cent believe the worst has already passed.²

"Three factors figure prominently in today's sluggish market: hesitant first-time buyers, a return to sell-before-buy behaviour, and limited inventory in several key markets," added Soper. "First-time buyers are the engine of the housing market, and when they pause, it ripples through every segment. Move-up buyers are also taking a more measured approach, often choosing to sell before committing to their next purchase; a behaviour we haven't seen in years. In some regions, however, the issue isn't demand – it's supply.

"What's clear is that many Canadians still intend to move. Our sales professionals, working with buyers and sellers every day, are approaching the spring and summer markets with cautious optimism."

According to the central bank, nearly one third (29%) of Canadians said they were likely to move within the next 12 months, up from 22 per cent from a year earlier. Similarly, 20 per cent of homeowners said they were likely to sell their home within the next year, up from 14 per cent.³

Canada: a market of markets

The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data nationally and regionally in 65 of the nation's largest real estate markets. When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home decreased 1.3 per cent year over year to $857,300, while the median price of a condominium decreased 3.4 per cent to $577,600. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the median price of a single-family detached home and a condominium increased modestly by 1.0 per cent and 0.4 per cent, respectively. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian real estate valuation company.

"Despite ongoing uncertainty, the underlying fundamentals of Canada's housing market remain sound. For buyers, the environment has improved meaningfully. Competition has eased, interest rates have stabilized, and in many parts of the country prices have levelled off – with declines in our most expensive markets, Toronto and Vancouver, as the price gap with more affordable cities continues to narrow," added Soper.

"National trends may dominate the headlines, but regional realities are what define market conditions on the ground."

In the first quarter, the aggregate price of a home decreased 4.7 per in the Greater Toronto Area and 4.5 per cent in Greater Vancouver.

"Because of their size, softness in British Columbia and southern Ontario has an outsized impact on national averages," said Soper. "Meanwhile, strong demand in a much more affordable Quebec market has allowed the province's major cities to lead in both activity and price growth. On the Prairies, sales have slowed somewhat, yet home values continue to rise modestly, reflecting ongoing supply constraints. Atlantic Canada's economy has been bolstered by a surge in Newfoundland's energy sector and a recovery in Nova Scotia's exports. While sales volumes have moderated, low inventory and a continued stream of interprovincial migrants seeking affordability have fuelled continued, modest home price appreciation."

Interest rate trajectory uncertain as inflation risks reappear

Rising energy costs, driven by the escalating conflict in Iran, have introduced renewed uncertainty into the interest rate outlook, which may lead to a shift in market activity. With inflation currently sitting within the Bank of Canada's target range, and unemployment ticking up in recent months (6.7% in February and March),⁴ the overnight lending rate has remained on hold at 2.25 per cent since last October. However, the risk of inflation reaccelerating has brought the possibility of future rate hikes back into focus.

"With inflation pressures resurfacing, the Bank of Canada has no room to lower interest rates further – and the next move could be upward," said Soper. "For buyers planning to enter the market this year, securing a mortgage pre-approval sooner rather than later is a prudent step, particularly as rate holds have a limited shelf life. As that reality sets in, we expect more buyers to come off the sidelines through the spring and summer months."

New construction industry receives boost from government spending

Canada's new construction sector has faced sustained headwinds in recent years, driven by subdued investor demand in the condominium market, the rising cost of labour and materials, elevated borrowing rates and cuts to immigration. While housing starts increased six per cent year over year in 2025,⁵ much of that growth was driven by an increase in purpose-built rental construction. According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), the number of rental units under construction in 2025 reached nearly double the 10-year average, with record levels reported in Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa, Halifax and Montreal.

Significant government investment, however, could help re-energize both the new construction and resale markets by supporting much-needed supply and improving overall market confidence.

In March, applications opened for the First-Time Home Buyers' GST/HST Rebate, allowing eligible buyers to recover up to 100 per cent of the federal sales tax on qualifying new construction homes, up to a maximum of $50,000.⁶ The Ontario government has taken it a step further, agreeing to match the federal incentive by crediting the provincial portion of HST, meaning first-time buyers can save up to a total $130,000. In addition, the two governments announced the Canada–Ontario Partnership to Build, a cost-shared investment of close to $9 billion over the next decade to cut development costs and boost housing development.⁷

"For years, Royal LePage has been clear: reducing development costs and cutting unnecessary red tape are essential to improving housing affordability," said Soper. "Canada's housing shortage is the result of years of underbuilding, and the only way to close the demand-supply gap is to get more shovels in the ground. This won't happen if the cost of building remains unsustainable.

"The new federal-provincial government-led initiatives are a meaningful step toward getting projects moving again. But we must stay focused on outcomes. Building more housing – and, critically, building the right types of homes that Canadians can grow into – is essential to the long-term health of both the housing market and the broader economy."

Forecast

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase 1.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2026
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2026

REGIONAL SUMMARIES

Greater Toronto Area

The aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) decreased 4.7 per cent year over year to $1,091,900 in the first quarter of 2026. On a quarterly basis, however, the aggregate price of a home in the GTA increased a modest 0.7 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 4.5 per cent year over year to $1,382,300 in the first quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium decreased 6.5 per cent to $658,000 during the same period.

"The spring market is quietly building momentum, with home sales in Toronto rising modestly year over year at the end of the first quarter. Price growth, however, remains flat from one month to the next as elevated supply levels keep conditions balanced," said Shawn Zigelstein, broker and leader of Team Zold, Royal LePage Signature Realty. "The condo segment has seen a slight uptick in activity, driven largely by interest from first-time buyers and downsizers. At the same time, inventory throughout the city has been trending downward, as many sellers are choosing to relist at a later date rather than accept lower offers. This signals a level of confidence among sellers, but it's also contributing to a degree of gridlock, with buyers and sellers waiting for more favourable conditions to move forward."

Zigelstein noted that uncertainty around interest rates has prompted a small segment of first-time buyers to enter the market in recent weeks. With fixed mortgage rates increasing amid pressure on bond yields, many are choosing to act now while they have a favourable mortgage rate locked in place, before their loan pre-approvals expire.

In the city of Toronto, the aggregate price of a home decreased 4.8 per cent year over year to $1,070,600 in the first quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 9.7 per cent year over year to $1,528,900, while the median price of a condominium decreased 3.8 per cent to $660,600.

"Last year's spring market fell short of expectations. With strong inventory levels and stable pricing helping to attract buyers, we're optimistic that the foundation is in place for more robust activity in 2026," said Zigelstein. "Buyers are out exploring and doing their homework, but many aren't moving aggressively with offers just yet. One potential catalyst for increased activity is the possibility of interest rate hikes in response to rising inflation, which could prompt some buyers to act sooner than later. At the same time, that urgency is being tempered by broader economic concerns, including job security, which remain top of mind for many consumers."

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area will decrease 4.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2026
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2026

Greater Montreal Area

The aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area increased 3.3 per cent year over year to $645,800 in the first quarter of 2026. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased a modest 0.8 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 6.1 per cent year over year to $759,400 in the first quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium was flat, increasing just 0.1 per cent to $490,900 during the same period.

According to Marc Lefrançois, chartered real estate broker, Royal LePage Tendance, the first quarter of 2026 was defined by a clear dichotomy.

"After a disappointing January with historically-low absorption rates, the market bounced back in February with double-digit growth. Single-family homes and plexes continue to show sustained strength, while downtown condos are struggling with an inventory surplus amplified by competition from new builds," he noted. "We are seeing a major comeback within the luxury market, while the urban condo sector lags behind."

Sales activity, which was more subdued than usual for the start of the year, was primarily driven by buyers looking to move up to a higher-end property and the end of the post-pandemic urban exodus. "This demand is supporting the single-family home and condo segments in sought-after neighbourhoods like Villeray and Rosemont, which remain seller's markets," said Lefrançois.

On the other hand, the condominium market has faced significant challenges, particularly in urban centres. "Condo inventory has reached record highs on the Island, making this segment stagnant; existing properties are difficult to sell due to the oversaturation of new builds in Ville-Marie or L'Île-des-Sœurs," he added. "We expect to see moderate price growth for houses and stagnation for condos throughout the year."

In Montreal Centre, the aggregate price of a home increased 7.6 per cent year over year to $797,300 in the first quarter of 2026. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 9.4 per cent to $1,242,900, while the median price of a condominium was virtually unchanged, decreasing 0.2 per cent to $588,600.

Market sentiment in Quebec remains positive despite an uncertain global climate. "The market remains confident thanks to our diversified economy, and while geopolitical tensions in Iran or the 'Trump effect' are worth watching, they haven't yet dampened buyer morale," noted Lefrançois. "However, this stability has been tempered by some nervousness among English-speaking clients regarding the provincial political climate, though it is too early to measure the actual impact on real estate projects."

With the spring 2026 market underway, Lefrançois anticipates that the momentum in the single-family and luxury segments will hold steady in sought-after areas. Furthermore, the gradual end of remote work is expected to reduce the advantage previously held by the North Shore and South Shore, as buyers begin migrating back toward the Island. In the condominium market, the transition toward a buyer's market will offer more room for negotiation; prices remain stable except in the most high-demand neighbourhoods.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area will increase 5.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2026
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2026

Greater Vancouver

The aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver decreased 4.5 per cent to $1,174,500 year over year in the first quarter of 2026. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region decreased modestly by 0.4 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 5.7 per cent year over year to $1,660,800 in the first quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium decreased 4.8 per cent to $729,000 during the same period.

"The market has been on a gradual upswing in recent months as we approach the spring season. In March, transaction volume increased, notably month over month, suggesting that consumers are beginning to re-engage. We're also seeing the return of multiple offers and stronger foot traffic at open houses, and anecdotally, agents are reporting increased activity," said Randy Ryalls, managing broker, Royal LePage Sterling Realty. "Buyers are engaged and responding to well-priced, well-presented inventory. We're also continuing to see a higher number of 'subject to sale' offers, which indicates that both move-up and downsizing buyers are present in the market."

In the city of Vancouver, the aggregate price of a home decreased 3.9 per cent year over year to $1,366,800 in the first quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 5.4 per cent to $2,160,400, while the median price of a condominium declined 4.6 per cent to $780,100.

Ryalls added that a significant share of active listings in Greater Vancouver have undergone price adjustments or expired, indicating that many sellers are still working to align their pricing with current market conditions.

"Signs are pointing to a stronger spring market in 2026, with rising buyer traffic, declining days on market, and renewed interest offering early momentum – though this likely won't result in price increases for some time. The key challenge will be aligning buyer and seller expectations, which will be critical to unlocking more consistent activity in the months ahead," said Ryalls. "At the same time, geopolitical and economic uncertainty will continue to play a role, with many consumers closely watching the headlines as they navigate their next move."

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver will decrease 3.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2026
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2026

Ottawa

The aggregate price of a home in Ottawa decreased a modest 0.5 per cent year over year to $775,800 in the first quarter of 2026. On a quarterly basis, however, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased slightly by 0.6 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 0.9 per cent year over year to $882,200 in the first quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium decreased 2.6 per cent to $400,500 during the same period.

"Ottawa's housing market saw a slower-than-usual start to the year, with sales below long-term averages, though activity has begun to pick up as we head into the spring market," said Jason Ralph, broker and owner, Royal LePage Team Realty. "Buyers remain active, particularly at more affordable price points, but they are taking more time and approaching decisions more cautiously. Pricing has remained relatively stable overall, with modest recent gains since the start of the year suggesting early signs of strengthening as we move into the spring season."

Ralph noted that conditions continue to vary across housing segments, with condos beginning to stabilize after a period of elevated supply; townhomes seeing the strongest activity; and, activity in the single-family home segment remaining steady, especially at entry-level price points where competition persists.

"Looking ahead, I anticipate a busier spring market that will help to offset the slower start to the year," added Ralph. "Inventory levels remain higher than in recent years, giving buyers more choice and keeping the market in balanced territory, while prices are expected to remain relatively stable in the months ahead."

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Ottawa will increase 2.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2026  
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2026

Quebec City

The aggregate price of a home in Quebec City increased 10.7 per cent year over year to $475,300 in the first quarter of 2026. This represents the highest year-over-year price increase among Canada's major regions for the eighth consecutive quarter. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased 4.8 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 11.1 per cent year over year to $508,500 in the first quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium increased 8.4 per cent to $350,000 during the same period.

According to Michèle Fournier, vice-president and real estate broker, Royal LePage Inter-Québec, the first quarter of 2026 was defined by mixed performance. "The market has become very fragmented. We're moving away from the previous frantic pace toward a more balanced dynamic where activity varies significantly by neighbourhood. While some areas are stagnating, others are still seeing multiple offers, particularly for lower-priced properties in need of renovations or, conversely, for 'turnkey' homes that are fully updated," she observed. "We are witnessing a market stabilization where discipline and rigorous cost analysis have replaced impulsive buying."

Despite buyer caution, home prices continue to climb due to a chronic lack of inventory. This newfound prudence is largely driven by a shift in buyer behaviour in response to the rising cost of living and unemployment concerns, though the Quebec City market remains largely shielded by the public sector. Budgets are tighter, and there is now zero tolerance for environmental risks, such as flood zones. "This shift in sentiment has translated into increased caution. Buyers are increasingly reluctant to overpay for properties requiring major renovation, especially dated estate sales," Fournier explained.

For the spring and summer of 2026, Fournier anticipates a boost in activity with the arrival of warmer weather, especially if households choose to invest in their homes rather than travel. However, she noted that the quality of inventory will remain a major hurdle, as the current supply consists partly of estate properties needing upgrades. "The lack of high-quality listings continues to put upward pressure on prices," she said. She also pointed to a notable trend among semi-retirees leaving their primary residences to live year-round at their cottages. Finally, the return of entrepreneurs to Quebec City and the stability of the academic sector are acting as bulwarks against any sharp price fluctuations.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Quebec City will increase 12.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2026
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2026 

Calgary

The aggregate price of a home in Calgary remained flat year over year in the first quarter of 2026, decreasing just 0.5 per cent to $689,100. On a quarterly basis, however, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased 1.1 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased just 0.8 per cent year over year to $806,500 in the first quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium decreased 4.5 per cent to $257,100 during the same period.

"Calgary is experiencing a tale of two markets this spring, with notably different conditions across property types," said Corinne Lyall, broker and owner, Royal LePage Benchmark. "In the single-family segment, new listings are down compared to this time last year, tightening supply and driving more competitive conditions. In contrast, the condominium and row-style segment is seeing rising inventory levels, as softer demand and increased rental availability give buyers more choice. We continue to see multiple offers on well-priced detached homes, while the condo segment remains more balanced with greater supply."

Lyall noted that an increase in purpose-built rentals in the region has had an influence on buyer behaviour, with many taking more time to weigh their options to rent or buy. At the same time, while migration to Calgary remains prevalent, it has moderated compared to previous years, contributing to a slight decline in overall sales activity.

"Looking ahead, I expect a relatively balanced spring market overall, but with clear differences between the various property types," added Lyall. "Detached homes are likely to see tighter conditions and potential price growth if supply remains constrained, while the condo market will continue to offer more selection, with some downward pressure on prices as buyers take a more measured approach."

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Calgary will increase 1.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2026
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2026 

Edmonton

The aggregate price of a home in Edmonton decreased 1.4 per cent year over year to $472,300 in the first quarter of 2026. On a quarterly basis, however, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased 1.2 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 0.9 per cent year over year to $521,800 in the first quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium decreased 1.9 per cent to $205,600 during the same period.

"Edmonton's housing market is moving at a more measured pace compared to last year, with lower sales activity reflecting shifting market conditions rather than a lack of demand," said Tom Shearer, broker and owner, Royal LePage Noralta Real Estate. "Inventory has been building gradually since 2025, giving buyers more choice and contributing to more balanced market conditions. As a result, buyers are taking their time and being more selective, rather than feeling pressure to act quickly."

Shearer noted that pricing has remained relatively stable overall, with modest year-over-year gains in the detached segment, though condominiums and row housing are seeing some minor softening.

"As we move into the spring market, I expect activity will continue to pick up," added Shearer. "While migration has slowed slightly, Edmonton's strong economic fundamentals continue to support demand, with market activity likely to normalize into the summer months."

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Edmonton will increase 2.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2026
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2026

Halifax

The aggregate price of a home in Halifax increased 1.5 per cent year over year to $525,400 in the first quarter of 2026. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased 2.7 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 1.8 per cent year over year to $600,200 in the first quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium decreased 0.9 per cent to $406,000 during the same period.

"The Halifax housing market has been uncharacteristically quiet these past few months, with activity trailing slightly behind the levels seen over the last two years. The market is reacting to the cooling effects of slowing immigration, and the added cost of Nova Scotia's interprovincial transfer tax," said Matt Honsberger, broker and owner, Royal LePage Atlantic. "Economic uncertainty is one of the primary drivers of the slowdown; it's creating an environment where locals are only moving if absolutely necessary. We're seeing sellers pull listings off the market until conditions improve."

Honsberger also noted that many baby boomers are choosing to age in place rather than transition into the condo market, which is keeping inventory levels stubbornly low.

"Looking ahead, while we suspect a modest seasonal uptick is on the way, it is unlikely to mirror the robust spring surges we've grown accustomed to. I anticipate overall activity for 2026 will be below last year. Despite the sluggish volume, prices have remained remarkably resilient and largely unaffected by the slowdown in activity," noted Honsberger. "This is creating a difficult landscape for first-time buyers. For most new buyers, the price gap to new construction as an option remains challenging, however we hope that the new GST rebate will help make new builds a more viable option for those looking to enter the market. For now, we're in a holding pattern, with most participants waiting for a clearer economic signal before making their next move."

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Halifax will increase 4.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised upward to reflect current market conditions.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2026
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2026

Winnipeg

The aggregate price of a home in Winnipeg increased 3.1 per cent year over year to $424,500 in the first quarter of 2026. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region rose 3.6 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 2.3 per cent year over year to $465,300 in the first quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium increased 3.7 per cent to $276,600 during the same period.

"Housing market activity is off to a pretty slow start this year, due in no small part to the extremely long stretch of winter weather," said Michael Froese, broker and manager, Royal LePage Prime Real Estate. "The core issue, however, remains a chronic lack of inventory, particularly in the single-family detached segment, where demand continues to outpace supply. We are currently seeing a bit of a stalemate: move-up buyers are sitting on their current listings because they don't see enough available inventory to move into, while the older generation are increasingly choosing to remain in their larger homes rather than downsizing, further restricting the turnover of properties."

Froese noted that, with the detached market being so tight, other market segments have picked up steam, with sales of attached housing and duplexes on the rise.

"While buyer preferences have evolved in recent years, many still aspire to own a detached home in the long term. As a result, we're seeing some imbalance between the types of housing being added to the market and what most buyers are ultimately seeking. This continues to place upward pressure on prices in the single-family detached segment," added Froese.

"Despite some general economic uncertainty, Winnipeg remains an attractive and resilient destination thanks to our diverse economy, stable job market and relative affordability compared to other major cities. As the winter finally breaks, we anticipate a typical spring market where prices remain buoyant and competition stays tight.

"Supply isn't built in a day, and the bottom line for our city is that we desperately need more single-family homes to meet the clear desires of Winnipeg families and to keep the market moving."

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Winnipeg will increase 4.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised upward to reflect current market conditions.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2026
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2026

Regina

The aggregate price of a home in Regina increased 3.5 per cent year over year to $397,900 in the first quarter of 2026. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region rose 1.9 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 3.9 per cent year over year to $439,400 in the first quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium increased 6.3 per cent to $232,800 during the same period.

"Regina's real estate market remains incredibly active, but challenged by a chronic inventory shortage that has left many buyers in a difficult spot. New listings continue to decline, further tightening a market where the level of choice buyers enjoyed pre-COVID has essentially vanished," said Chad Ehman, sales representative, Royal LePage Next Level. "We're in something of a standoff right now – many would-be sellers are holding back, paralyzed by the fear that if they sell, they won't be able to find a suitable replacement in such a crowded environment."

Ehman noted that while construction activity has finally turned a corner, specifically with high-density condo and townhome projects, it is going to take time to offset the years of lagging supply that followed the pandemic.

"Driven by a lack of available inventory, competition remains fierce. Adding to this demand is surging rental prices, which are acting as a powerful catalyst for first-time buyers, who are increasingly choosing ownership over high rents. Most of our activity is being driven by people moving from within Saskatchewan, showing that local demand is resilient regardless of broader economic jitters.

"As we head into the spring months – when the weather hopefully cooperates – we're expecting a traditional seasonal surge in listings. Whether it will be enough to meet growing demand is the question," Ehman added. "The math is simple: we'd need to see inventory double to truly satisfy the appetite of buyers in the city today. Otherwise, home prices will continue to climb."

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Regina will increase 4.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2026
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2026

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About the Royal LePage House Price Survey

The Royal LePage House Price Survey provides information on the most common types of housing, nationally and in 65 of the nation's largest real estate markets. Housing values in the Royal LePage House Price Survey are based on the Royal LePage Canadian Real Estate Market Composite, produced quarterly through the use of company data in addition to data and analytics from partner company, RPS Real Property Solutions, the trusted source for residential real estate intelligence and analytics in Canada. Additionally, commentary on housing market trends and data on price and forecast values are provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts, based on their opinions and market knowledge.

About Royal LePage

Serving Canadians since 1913, Royal LePage is the country's leading provider of services to real estate brokerages, with a network of approximately 20,000 real estate professionals in over 670 locations nationwide. Royal LePage is the only Canadian real estate company to have its own charitable foundation, the Royal LePage^® Shelter Foundation™, which has been dedicated to supporting women's shelters and domestic violence prevention programs for more than 25 years. Royal LePage is a Bridgemarq Real Estate Services^® company, a TSX-listed corporation trading under the symbol TSX:BRE. For more information, please visit www.royallepage.ca.

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SOURCE Royal LePage Real Estate Services